Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Finally some decent bowls

Tonight we have have the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl and towmorrow is the Las Vegas Bowl.  TCU is playing in the first and Boise St. is in the second.  Both of these schools have become nation powerhouses and deserved better bowls, but won't get them until they make their moves to other conferences.

TCU had a slow start to the season, but made up for it with a strong finish and a huge, nation ramifications victory at Boise.  These two teams seem to be tied together for the last few years.  They both have had nation title hopes in the last few years, but neither could put together the undefeated season at the right time.

This bowl is very important to TCU.  They take on a middle of the road Louisiana Tech and will be trying to put up some big points and play extremely well.  If they can have a big game, Casey Pachall will go into his junior year with big hopes and probably a high preseason ranking, this game could do a lot for next year.  Since TCU will be in a major conference next season and could make a legitimate run at a national title.  They of course will have a harder schedule and will finally get to prove themselves against some of the major teams in the nation.

Boise has a different type of game.  This will be Kellen Moore's victory lap for a great career at Boise St.  He has put up some big numbers and lots of wins for the Broncos.  They will face of against Arizona St.  The Sun Devils were thought to be the top contenders for the PAC-12 South title with USC on probation, but fell apart in the second half of the season.  ASU has a very nice win against USC early in the season, but that was before USC really got it together.  Boise also got their best victory early on, against a Georgia team that made the SEC title game.

Neither TCU or Boise St. should have too much trouble in these games.  Arizona St. is probably the tougher opponent, but Boise St. won't run into to many problems with team.

I lost last night to move to a record of 19-15.  I'm laying the points in both of these games.  TCU (-9.5) and Boise St. (-14)

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The Beef 'O' Brady Bowl

The Marshall Thundering Herd and the Florida International Golden Panthers will descend on Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, tonight. 

Why does this bowl exist?  Do we really need to know if the fifth place Conference USA team is better than the fourth best Sun Belt team?  Marshall needed over time to beat ECU just to be eligible to play in this game.  I give Marshall credit for playing three ranked teams this year, but they got blown-out in all of them. 

Marshall doesn't rank in the top half of the NCAA in anything.  FIU ranks pretty well in points-against, but that has a lot to do with playing in the Sun Belt.

FIU has the only quality win between them, in an early season victory against co-Big East Champion Louisville.  That's a 7-5 Louisville team that played a lot better as the season went on.

Went 1-2 on the first set of bowl games to snap my winning streak.  I now stand 19-14 overall.

I'm gonna go with FIU (-4).  I don't have much of a reason for picking FIU, but Marshall is just bad.

Be back tomorrow with some decent bowl games, containing TCU and Boise St. among others.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Happy Bowl Season!

It's that time of year again.  Christmas songs are becoming annoying again, except "Little Drummer Boy" Bowie's version kicks ass.  So does Tori Amos'.  I still haven't gone shopping yet (Note to self: go to liquor store).  Most importantly the bowl games start this Saturday.

Another thing.  Can HBO do a 24/7 series for everything?  Sports. Shopping. Scrap-booking. Everything.

Went 3-2 championship weekend to finish the regular season 18-12.  I'll be picking every bowl game.  I assume my hot streak will turn really cold soon.

The legendary New Mexico Bowl will start it all of for us at 2 PM Saturday.  Temple will represent the MAC against Wyoming from the MWC in this 11AM local time kickoff. 

Temple is seventh in the nation in rushing and third in points against.  They only lost to Penn St. by 4, pre-craziness at State College.  They also crushed a bad Maryland team in their other major conference game.

Wyoming on the other hand is a mediocre team across the board, ranked mid-table in points for and against, along with passing and rushing.  The are a little better on the ground.  Looking at the results of their season, the Cowboys have four losses, but three of them are to Nebraska, TCU and Boise St.  It seems that Wyoming can beat the teams they are supposed to, and fail to the better teams in the country.

Temple is favored by 7 in this game.  I always think of Temple as the one win Rutgers would have in all of those 1-11 seasons pre-Brian Leonard/Ray Rice.  That means the Owls are not a Power.  I'm taking Wyoming (+7).

Bonus Question:  Does anyone go to this game?  Are Wyoming fans going to travel to New Mexico for a late morning kickoff?  I'm pretty sure Temple fans will not be flocking from Philly.

When this season started, I really wanted to see Ohio University and Utah St. battle each other on the football field.  Thanks to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, this blogger gets his wish. 

I've actually watched a few Ohio games this year.  They played Rutgers and they have played on Tuesdays and Wednesdays this year.  When they did play mid-week I happened to be out and the games were on the TV at the bar.  They played very close games on those occasions.  This game falls in the late afternoon slot and I will be watching before I head out to a Christmas Party on Saturday.  I hope it's a close one.

Ohio is coming off a loss in the MAC Title game against Northern Illinois, which would have moved them into next year to play Arkansas St.  This might actually be a better game for them, people are itching for some college football now, by Jan. 8 some may have had enough. 

The only time I saw Utah St. this season, I saw them take Auburn to the brink to start the season.  Auburn was out-played by the Aggies and needed an onside kick to win the game.  They fell one game short of taking the WAC Title. 

Both teams can rush the ball, both over 200 yards per game.  Utah St. runs it better 277 per game.  That, along with almost beating a SEC team and defending champs gives them the edge in my mind.  Utah St. (-1.5).

The last game of this first slate of bowl games is the New Orleans Bowl.  With San Diego St. taking on Louisiana-Lafayette in a MWC-Sun Belt showdown.  I'll be at a party and the Rangers will be playing on the west coast, there is no shot I watch a second of this game.

The purpose of this game is clear.  Which is more impressive UL-Lafayette's 61-34 loss to Oklahoma St. to start the season, or San Diego St.'s 52-35 loss to Boise St.  AQ conference vs. mid-major...sorta.

Let's go to the video tape.  UL-Lafayette gave up 388 yards through the air for 3 TDs by Brandon Weeden, but also picked him off three times.  Nice work guys!  San Diego St. on the other hand limited (?) Kellen Moore to 366 yards and 4 TDs, but only intercepted him once.

This expert, in-depth analysis shows me that UL-Lafayette is clearly the better team.  San Diego St. is favored by 5.  I'm taking the points UL-Lafayette (+5).

Bonus Question:  Who would win in a fight a "Ragin' Cajun" or "Aztec"?

I'll be back for the mid-week bowls predictions, which happen to contain teams that I have actually watched this season.  Have a good one.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Championship Weekend

Here we are, the last week of the college football regular season.  Lots of changes this year from the previous BCS era championship weekends.  First off, The Pac-12 and Big Ten both have title games now.  The Big 12 does not have an official one anymore.  On a national level, the BCS title game is almost certainly going to be a rematch of top ranked LSU and fellow SEC West powerhouse Alabama. 

With these circumstances, we have the opportunity to just sit back and enjoy the games.

Or we could just cry about the system, it sucks.

No one I've talked to (and this includes folks from SEC country) wants to see a rematch.  We all think they are the two best teams, but firstly it is not fair to LSU, who beat Alabama already and did their job of going undefeated in the regular season.  Secondly, we have seen this game already, and it wasn't that good, not to say it will be the same game again, but let's try something new.

This year is the first year that I actually would have like the old bowl system.  LSU being the clear cut best team.  If the Tigers lose in their bowl game (wouldn't have been against Alabama in the old system) then the voters could just weigh the seasons of all the one-loss teams and choose a champion.  Just kidding, the voters would totally screw that up. 

Let's get to the games.

The Pac-12 Championship game debuts on Friday night.  Oregon hosts UCLA.  The Ducks are overwhelming favorites in this game.  The game has a solid chance of being the least compelling major conference championship game in the semi-storied history of major conference championship games.  It's going to be ugly.  Unless you are a Ducks fan or just want to watch a more athletic, better coached, smarter team at all facets of the game, absolutely destroy another team that backed it's way into the game, by having others lose and the best team in their division be barred from the contest.

If you find yourself watching this game on Friday, take the time to really watch the Oregon offense play a few drives.  They play offense like an old school hardcore album.  15 tracks, 30 minutes.  If you are watching with a buddy, play a game, try to predict the next play.  I doesn't matter if you are right, but if you are done speaking before they run the play.

Much more compelling games on Saturday, at least on the field. 

Let's start at noon with the Conference USA title game.  Southern Mississippi and Houston.  The main reason to watch this game is Case Keenum, the Houston QB, that has an outside chance at the Heisman and holds most of the career passing records for the whole NCAA.  The other reason is Southern Miss is ranked 24, this will be the first ranked team Houston plays this year.

Southern Miss has lost by 6 and 3 to Marshall and UAB respectfully.  Neither of those two teams are great, but they have not been blown out.  They also beat Virginia, a team that was one game away from making the ACC Championship Game.  Their QB Austin Davis has had a nice season.  Over 3,000 yards, with 24 TDs to 10 INTs.  He went 27-41 for 313 yards and 3 TDs, while throwing zero INTs in their biggest win at Virginia.  This game has a good shot at being the best and/or most exciting game of the weekend, and with Houston's BCS bid at stake, the drama will be there and will be real.

LSU heads to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to take on Georgia at 3:30 on Saturday.  Even with a loss, LSU is almost guaranteed a spot for the BCS Title anyway, so that drama is gone.  LSU has been considered the best team in the nation since they beat Alabama a month ago, and even before that a lot of people considered them the best.  What they put on the line Saturday is history.  LSU did it's job ever week this crazy season.  Playing in the toughest division in the toughest conference and throwing two probably major conference champions in their out-of-conference schedule for the hell of it, history is paying attention.  This LSU team, if it continues to do it's job, can start being mentioned with the other great teams in modern college football.  The 1995 Nebraska and 2001 Miami teams come to mind.  The Tigers main goal is a national title, which this game doesn't really effect, but history along with a SEC title will be on the line Saturday.

Georgia lost to Boise St. and a still healthy and intact South Carolina team to start the season.  After that they fell under the radar, Mark Richt was on the hot seat, the team was not on the same page, the season was in trouble of being an end of an era in Athens.  Like a boxer that gets knocked down in the first two rounds of a fight, then starts winning round after round after round, you thought the fight was over, but then the final bell rings and boom Georgia is the winner.  They have a chance to knock a team from the ranks of the undefeated and possibly the ranks of the all-timers.  If Georgia pulls the upset, Aaron Murray will be throwing the jabs.  Not putting up astronomical numbers like some of his counterparts, he putting up consistent good games, only four interceptions in his last seven games, compared to 19 scores and the ability to run of a first down or two.  To go along with those jabs, Isaish Crowell will have to be throwing the hay-makers.  He is expected to play and will need to make big plays (not an easy task against this defense) but the freshman can be explosive.  This game can be really close and really good, but LSU, like all of their other games, can blow this one open at any point.

Oklahoma St. hosts Oklahoma in the annual Bedlam game.  The Cowboys can still dream about playing for it all against LSU, but they would really need to beat Oklahoma convincingly.  I don't see that happening, if the roles were reversed and Oklahoma was still dreaming of BCS trophies, I'd be more inclined to go along with it, but when traditional underdogs in rivalries try to have a break-through season, it is rarely with a blowout.  This is a great QB matchup, Landry Jones is trying to cap of his season with a big game and try to cement his spot at the second best QB in the draft (assuming Matt Barkley declares).  Brandon Weeden is trying to make people forget about Iowa St.  The Incas played better defense against the Spanish than these Oklahoma teams will play on Saturday. 

The late game on Saturday is the Big Ten Championship.  A rematch between Michigan St. and Wisconsin.  The Spartans won the first game with a last second Hail Mary pass.  Wisconsin is the better offense, Russell Wilson and Montee Ball leading the way.  Michigan St. has the advantage on the defensive end, ranked 6th in the nation in points allowed, but they did give up 31 to Wisconsin.  The question is can the Spartans score 37 again this time.  They have done so four of the five times since that game, those four were against Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern, in the one against a decent Nebraska team, they scored 3.

Wisconsin will get their points.  Montee Ball's Yards-TDs game log this season:

63-1
118-2
91-2
88-2
151-4
148-3
115-1
85-1
223-3
166-2
224-2
156-4

That's a total of 1622 yards and 29 TDs.  On top of this he scored five touchdowns on the receiving end.  I believe that's Heisman worthy.

Clemson and Virginia Tech play for ACC bragging rights.  Clemson won the first match-up, but has fallen apart since.  VT will try to stay among the one-loss teams and would be in the BCS Title picture if they played even a somewhat decent schedule, but they didn't. 

Baylor and Texas play in the afternoon, if you haven't seen RGIII play, check him out.

The Picks

Another winning week for your highly-esteemed blogger.  3-2 to push me to a robust 15-10 on the season.

(10) Oklahoma (+3) at (3) Oklahoma St. 

Oklahoma has won 7 in a row in this rivalry, and this is a rare time where the Sooners are getting points.  Add that to Landry Jones playing his final Big 12 game and a chance to show the scouts that he should be the second QB taken, and Brandon Weeden propensity to throw the ball to the other team recently and two weeks to stew over the Iowa St. debacle.  I like Oklahoma here.

(1) LSU (-13.5) vs. (14) Georgia

The game is being played in Atlanta, but LSU will be well represented in the stands.  Georgia has a punchers chance in the game, but LSU's defense is just too strong and Jordan Jefferson is playing well.  If the spread was over two TDs I may stay away from it, but with the Tigers scoring on offense, defense and special teams, I'll lay the points.

(17) Baylor (-2.5) vs. (22) Texas

Robert Griffin III will be the best play on the field, Baylor beat Oklahoma and Texas is far worse than Oklahoma.  Texas his banged up at running back and do not have a sure-fire starter at QB.

(5) Virginia Tech (-7) vs. (20) Clemson

Clemson has fallen of a cliff with only one win in their last four games and that was by three against Wake Forest.  Other than shutting out Virginia last week, VT has not been dominating games recently, but Clemson can not get out of their own way in recent weeks and the Hokies want to get revenge.  Also, Logan Thomas and David Wilson is one of the nations best QB-RB duo and have been playing at their really high level.

San Diego St. (-8) vs. Fresno St.

San Diego St. is 4-3 in the Mountain West and Fresno St is 3-4 in the WAC.  The MWC has TCU and Boise St. and the WAC does not.  Also San Diego St. has Tony Gwynn as an assistant baseball coach, and San Diego is an awesome town.