The slate of night games has suddenly turned pretty damn good. FSU and Virginia could barely move the ball for three and a half quarters, Virginia makes a few plays late in the 4th. Virginia's QB hits his RB out of the back field for a nice gain to get down to 9 yard line with the game 13-7 in FSU's favor, then next play barrels into the endzone for the score. FSU turns around and gets a facemask call to extend their drive after a 4th down sack.
(Editor's Note: I started writing live at this point.)
It's 11:08. E.J. Manuel completes a ball down to the 25 yard line, but it was in bounds, and the clock runs out. It's under review. But in the review it looks incomplete. Time may go back on the clock for a last second field goal try. Wild.
Oregon scores while this is happening to pull back with-in three points, in a game that looked over in the 3rd because USC couldn't be stopped. Then I see number 5 Oklahoma is losing Baylor at the end of the third, buy seven.
Okay Referee is back out on the field. "After further review, the pass was incomplete". Now for the kick...illegal signal call on the defense, five yard penalty...wild. It's 11:12. Now the kick...NO GOOD! Directly over the right up-right, that was about as close as you could get. Virginia wins 14-13, first win ever at Florida St. Nuts.
3rd and 4 for USC. Big first down. It's 11:15.
McNeil, runningback for USC, gets five yards down to Oregon's 11. 38-35 USC.
2nd and 5. Fumble on the exchange, Oregon recovers! 86 yards to the goal line. Incomplete pass by Oregon QB Darren Thomas. Big first down after a 15 yard rush by #24. This Oregon offense is quick. 1:45 left in the fourth. It's 3rd and 11, first down on the TE screen. It's 11:18.
Oregon with a nice wheel route for the first. Incomplete at 1:13 remaining. Oregon is in USC territory and down 3. 3rd and 1. Quick plays. 1st Down. It's 11:20
Oregon's fast play forces USC to call timeout with :38 seconds left in regulation. A well needed commercial. Baylor extends their lead to 14.
Oregon is playing lightning fast right now. They seem to be in range for a decent shot at a field goal. Out of a commercial at 11:22. Ball on the USC 32. Oregon runs it for about 9, they have all three time outs. They quickly run for 3 and a first. Quick pass, incomplete. 2nd down. ball on the 18. :14 second. Loss three yards. :07 seconds. It's 11:24. timeout Oregon.
Oregon has rallied back and is down 3. Look to be lining up to run a play. False start Oregon. Oregon lines the ball up in the middle of the field. :05 seconds left. Oregon's kicker attempting a career long field goal of 42-yards. It's 11:26. Time out USC.
Lining up. It's 11:27. Offside USC. Now it is a 37-yard field goal. It's 11:28. NO GOOD! USC wins, Oregon no longer in contention for the NCAA Title.
Who knows what this does for BCS rankings, but those were two very good games. Awesome endings.
(Editor's Note: I stopped live blogging to watch the end of Oklahoma-Baylor)
Well Robert Griffin III is a beast. He and Baylor just knocked off Oklahoma in about 45 seconds. I have absolutely no idea what the BCS will look like, but if LSU beats Arkansas, I think it has to be VT if they win out, because they will be the highest one-loss team left that has not lost to LSU. If Arkansas wins, then I really have no idea what it should be.
It's midnight - Iowa St., NC State, USC and Baylor just assassinated the BCS. I assume they were hired by the SEC. I'm done for the night...Wait Stanford is only up one on Cal at half. This could get bonkers. I'm legit like 10 minutes away from calling for Rutgers to have a shot at LSU...maybe not that far.
The Picks
Went 3-2 last week, that's three consecutive winning weeks, and a 12-8 record on the season.
Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. Texas
This is the last game between these two Lone Star state rivals for what could be a while. A&M has been the lesser team in this rivalry and they are going to want to win this last one for bragging rights. The Aggies had a lofty ranking coming into the season, they have a better team and they are going to use the motivation of long time "little sister" labels to get a big win at College Station.
Ohio State (+7.5) at (17) Michigan
Michigan will not be playing in the Big Ten title game, but they do have a chance to make a BCS game if they win and get into the top 16. Ohio State would love nothing more than to make this season a success by beating their hate rivals from the North. They may not do it, but this game will be with-in a touchdown.
(6) Virginia Tech (-5) at (24) Virginia
The Cavaliers did me a solid last week, by not only winning me my pick, but beating FSU. Virginia Tech is being slightly overlooked with this line, the hokies want to make the ACC title game and get a chance of revenge against Clemson and keep their small BCS title game hopes alive.
(13) Georgia (-6) at (25) Georgia Tech
This rivalry game has always been one of random favorites. Not sure why, but I like this game. I also like the way Georgia is playing, Their QB is playing very well, their impact players are producing and they would love nothing more than to beat the hated Yellow Jackets before their date with LSU, Alabama or Arkansas in Atlanta.
East Carolina (-1) at Marshall
I don't know much about either team. The one thing I do know is that ECU will win by at least one point. Mark it down. Bet the house. Kids College fund. All of it. Unless of course I'm wrong, than you are all idiots.
Have a great holiday, see you next week.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Friday, November 18, 2011
Week 12 preview
Not a lot of big games, when it comes to the national picture, but some good games in a conference title aspect.
Virginia Tech won last night, putting the pressure on Virginia to win this weekend and keep the all-Virginia ACC coastal semi-final next week if the Cavaliers can get past Florida St. Virginia surprised people, including me, by putting together a very solid year and having a chance to win it's division. FSU has won five straight since their season fell apart earlier in the season with three consecutive losses. The Seminoles are home for this game and have been playing well on their winning streak. I would give them the advantage in this match-up based purely on talent.
Let's now take a look at the Big East. Cincinnati is 3-1. Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville and Pitt are 3-2. Along with UConn at 2-2, six teams have a shot at getting the BCS bid out of the Big East. The game this week that could either make it really easy for Cincinnati or make the standings even more jumbled is Cincinnati traveling to Piscataway to take on Rutgers. For the Scarlet Knights it starts with the defense. They are 11th in the Nation and tops in the conference in points against with 18.2 per game and they are averaging three forced turnovers a game. On the other side of the ball, the Knights offense leaves a lot to be imagined. Muhammad Sanu is catching passes on a record pace and Chas Dodd loves to throw his way, look for that to continue Saturday, but Dodd does need to cut down on the mistakes. When it comes to rushing the football, it is pretty much non-existent.
Other good games to take a look at this weekend are Michigan hosts Nebraska in what could be a good game with two QBs that can run or a very sloppy game with no real defenses. The other two are in the Big 12 with Kansas St. going to Texas to try to keep their impressive season going and Oklahoma trying not to look forward to Bedlam going to Baylor.
I'm running out of time here, so we are going to have to jump to the picks
The Picks
Went 3-2 last week to move to 9-6 on the season, let's see if we can continue the winning streak.
(15) Wisconsin (-14.5) at Illinois
Illinois and Ron Zook have turned their once promising season into a dumpster fire. Wisconsin has had some missteps against some good teams, but they beat up on the weaker teams in the Big Ten. Illinois is now a weaker team and Wisconsin should put a beating on them.
Virginia (+17.5) at (23) Florida State
As I said before, Virginia has more to play for in this game and will come out motivated. Mike London is becoming one of the more coveted coaches in college football and he will have his team ready to play in this game. Virginia will keep it closer than this line indicates
(4) Oregon (-14.5) vs (18) USC
Oregon is back in the national title race and has been rolling over teams since their week one loss. Matt Barkley and USC will keep this close early, but Oregon should pull away in the second half with the skill and speed.
(6) Arkansas (-13) vs Mississippi St.
The Razorbacks are on a crash course with LSU next week and they have been beating teams pretty easily in recent weeks. They are better than Miss St. and will want to make this one an easy one before their biggest game of the year next week.
Western Kentucky (-3) at North Texas
Heading back to Sun Belt conference, the fact that I'm 0-2 in picking this conference does not deter me. Western Kentucky had their five game winning straight by LSU last week, North Texas is not LSU. Western Kentucky is 5-1 in the conference, with their only loss being to conference leaders Arkansas St. I like the Hilltoppers.
Have a good weekend. Oklahoma St. plays tonight if you have nothing to do. May or may not have a post next week, have a great Thanksgiving if there isn't one.
Virginia Tech won last night, putting the pressure on Virginia to win this weekend and keep the all-Virginia ACC coastal semi-final next week if the Cavaliers can get past Florida St. Virginia surprised people, including me, by putting together a very solid year and having a chance to win it's division. FSU has won five straight since their season fell apart earlier in the season with three consecutive losses. The Seminoles are home for this game and have been playing well on their winning streak. I would give them the advantage in this match-up based purely on talent.
Let's now take a look at the Big East. Cincinnati is 3-1. Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville and Pitt are 3-2. Along with UConn at 2-2, six teams have a shot at getting the BCS bid out of the Big East. The game this week that could either make it really easy for Cincinnati or make the standings even more jumbled is Cincinnati traveling to Piscataway to take on Rutgers. For the Scarlet Knights it starts with the defense. They are 11th in the Nation and tops in the conference in points against with 18.2 per game and they are averaging three forced turnovers a game. On the other side of the ball, the Knights offense leaves a lot to be imagined. Muhammad Sanu is catching passes on a record pace and Chas Dodd loves to throw his way, look for that to continue Saturday, but Dodd does need to cut down on the mistakes. When it comes to rushing the football, it is pretty much non-existent.
Other good games to take a look at this weekend are Michigan hosts Nebraska in what could be a good game with two QBs that can run or a very sloppy game with no real defenses. The other two are in the Big 12 with Kansas St. going to Texas to try to keep their impressive season going and Oklahoma trying not to look forward to Bedlam going to Baylor.
I'm running out of time here, so we are going to have to jump to the picks
The Picks
Went 3-2 last week to move to 9-6 on the season, let's see if we can continue the winning streak.
(15) Wisconsin (-14.5) at Illinois
Illinois and Ron Zook have turned their once promising season into a dumpster fire. Wisconsin has had some missteps against some good teams, but they beat up on the weaker teams in the Big Ten. Illinois is now a weaker team and Wisconsin should put a beating on them.
Virginia (+17.5) at (23) Florida State
As I said before, Virginia has more to play for in this game and will come out motivated. Mike London is becoming one of the more coveted coaches in college football and he will have his team ready to play in this game. Virginia will keep it closer than this line indicates
(4) Oregon (-14.5) vs (18) USC
Oregon is back in the national title race and has been rolling over teams since their week one loss. Matt Barkley and USC will keep this close early, but Oregon should pull away in the second half with the skill and speed.
(6) Arkansas (-13) vs Mississippi St.
The Razorbacks are on a crash course with LSU next week and they have been beating teams pretty easily in recent weeks. They are better than Miss St. and will want to make this one an easy one before their biggest game of the year next week.
Western Kentucky (-3) at North Texas
Heading back to Sun Belt conference, the fact that I'm 0-2 in picking this conference does not deter me. Western Kentucky had their five game winning straight by LSU last week, North Texas is not LSU. Western Kentucky is 5-1 in the conference, with their only loss being to conference leaders Arkansas St. I like the Hilltoppers.
Have a good weekend. Oklahoma St. plays tonight if you have nothing to do. May or may not have a post next week, have a great Thanksgiving if there isn't one.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Heisman race and other notes.
Oregon's trip to Palo Alto did more than just shake up the BCS rankings and put us one step closer to BCS mayhem. The Ducks win also created a Heisman Trophy race, a race thought to be for seconds place behind Stanford QB Andrew Luck. Luck didn't exactly look bad against Oregon, but he did make some mistakes (three turnovers) and could not keep his team close in the biggest game of his team's season. The game didn't, by any means end Luck's Heisman hopes, but instead made it for the first time this season, interesting.
Let's take a look at the canidates.
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
We can all see the talent here. The numbers prove the point also, 2695 yards, 29 TDs to only 7 INTs. He is completing over 70 percent of his passes and has two rushing touchdowns to add to his totals. His numbers will be there, over 3000 yards, 30-plus TDs and will do it without a lot of talent at the receiver position. The problem is this is for the Heisman Trophy and Luck's worst game, came in a blowout loss in the biggest game on their schedule. Luck is the best player in college football and will probably be the best in this NFL class, but as things stand now, I would have to vote him second at best.
Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St
Weeden has very comparable, if not better numbers than Luck. So far this year, he has completed 73.1% of his passes for 3635 yards, 31 TDs and 9 INTs. With two games left (at Iowa St. and home for Oklahoma) he will break the 4000 yard barrier and has a solid shot at breaking 40 touchdowns. As I talked about last week, he has a very talented receivers, much more so than Luck. The most important stat for Weeden so far is zero, zero in the loss column. But his biggest game hasn't happened yet, Oklahoma at home on Dec. 3rd. It's a big if, but if Weeden puts up good numbers in a signature win against the Sooners he would be the front runner for the Heisman.
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
If I had to vote today (which I'm sure some voters have already done so) Richardson would get my vote. With LaMichael James missing two games with an injury, Trent became the leading running back candidate. 1205 yards, 5.9 yards per carry and 18 scores, along with 318 yards receiving with one touchdown. Very good numbers, but when you look at Alabama's biggest game against LSU, he showed up. They lost the game, which doesn't hurt a running back as much, but Richardson was the best offensive player on either team. 169 yards from scrimmage on 28 touches (57 percent of the team's total yards). In the Crimson Tide's biggest win against Arkansas, 126 yards rushing on 17 carries, he added three catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. The LSU game was the only game this season he didn't find the end zone, no one did in that game.
Those are the three top guys on the Heisman list, but just like the BCS rankings, if a few things happen, chaos. Say Oklahoma crushes Oklahoma St. in the bedlam game, LaMichael James steals running back votes from Richardson and west coast votes from Luck after some big games. Then a serious look has to be taken in the direction of Case Keenum, QB, from Houston. Just because of the numbers, I understand he had an easy schedule, but these numbers are amazing. Undefeated, 3951 yards, 37 TD passes, only three INTs, completing 74 percent of his passes. He threw nine touchdowns in one game this season, 9. He has three more games to add to those numbers and needs a lot of things to happen, but he is the mid-major guy who has a shot to lift the famous trophy in New York, this December.
Some random notes...
Aaron Murray is the best quarterback in the SEC, he can make passes and does not make mistakes. He made Auburn look terrible on Saturday, eight straight wins and he is starting to develop a great relationship with his receivers. Georgia will most likely win the SEC East, a Georgia v. LSU SEC title game in Atlanta will be a very interesting game.
Is Virginia Tech the sneakiest one-loss team every season, or is it just me? David Wilson leads the nation in rushing, if the other Hokie backs didn't steal so many TDs in the red zone, he would probably be in the section above this. I'm also starting to get excited for a Clemson-VT rematch in the ACC title game, the VT-Virginia game will actually be like a defacto coastal division title game the week before, not much better than that for the ACC.
Finally, a big congrats to my fellow Scarlet Knight Muhammad Sanu. He broke Larry Fitzgerald's Big East record for catches in a season, he now has 94 on the year. Have a good Tuesday, see you later this week with a Saturday preview.
Let's take a look at the canidates.
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
We can all see the talent here. The numbers prove the point also, 2695 yards, 29 TDs to only 7 INTs. He is completing over 70 percent of his passes and has two rushing touchdowns to add to his totals. His numbers will be there, over 3000 yards, 30-plus TDs and will do it without a lot of talent at the receiver position. The problem is this is for the Heisman Trophy and Luck's worst game, came in a blowout loss in the biggest game on their schedule. Luck is the best player in college football and will probably be the best in this NFL class, but as things stand now, I would have to vote him second at best.
Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St
Weeden has very comparable, if not better numbers than Luck. So far this year, he has completed 73.1% of his passes for 3635 yards, 31 TDs and 9 INTs. With two games left (at Iowa St. and home for Oklahoma) he will break the 4000 yard barrier and has a solid shot at breaking 40 touchdowns. As I talked about last week, he has a very talented receivers, much more so than Luck. The most important stat for Weeden so far is zero, zero in the loss column. But his biggest game hasn't happened yet, Oklahoma at home on Dec. 3rd. It's a big if, but if Weeden puts up good numbers in a signature win against the Sooners he would be the front runner for the Heisman.
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
If I had to vote today (which I'm sure some voters have already done so) Richardson would get my vote. With LaMichael James missing two games with an injury, Trent became the leading running back candidate. 1205 yards, 5.9 yards per carry and 18 scores, along with 318 yards receiving with one touchdown. Very good numbers, but when you look at Alabama's biggest game against LSU, he showed up. They lost the game, which doesn't hurt a running back as much, but Richardson was the best offensive player on either team. 169 yards from scrimmage on 28 touches (57 percent of the team's total yards). In the Crimson Tide's biggest win against Arkansas, 126 yards rushing on 17 carries, he added three catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. The LSU game was the only game this season he didn't find the end zone, no one did in that game.
Those are the three top guys on the Heisman list, but just like the BCS rankings, if a few things happen, chaos. Say Oklahoma crushes Oklahoma St. in the bedlam game, LaMichael James steals running back votes from Richardson and west coast votes from Luck after some big games. Then a serious look has to be taken in the direction of Case Keenum, QB, from Houston. Just because of the numbers, I understand he had an easy schedule, but these numbers are amazing. Undefeated, 3951 yards, 37 TD passes, only three INTs, completing 74 percent of his passes. He threw nine touchdowns in one game this season, 9. He has three more games to add to those numbers and needs a lot of things to happen, but he is the mid-major guy who has a shot to lift the famous trophy in New York, this December.
Some random notes...
Aaron Murray is the best quarterback in the SEC, he can make passes and does not make mistakes. He made Auburn look terrible on Saturday, eight straight wins and he is starting to develop a great relationship with his receivers. Georgia will most likely win the SEC East, a Georgia v. LSU SEC title game in Atlanta will be a very interesting game.
Is Virginia Tech the sneakiest one-loss team every season, or is it just me? David Wilson leads the nation in rushing, if the other Hokie backs didn't steal so many TDs in the red zone, he would probably be in the section above this. I'm also starting to get excited for a Clemson-VT rematch in the ACC title game, the VT-Virginia game will actually be like a defacto coastal division title game the week before, not much better than that for the ACC.
Finally, a big congrats to my fellow Scarlet Knight Muhammad Sanu. He broke Larry Fitzgerald's Big East record for catches in a season, he now has 94 on the year. Have a good Tuesday, see you later this week with a Saturday preview.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Penn St.
I feel like I can not get away from the Penn St. controversy. I saw the Penn St. fans cheer for Joe Pa, the fans wearing blue for sexual abuse awareness. The cheering of 100,000-plus for Paterno to grace the sidelines once againe.
But all of this means nothing to me. The worst thing that could happened in college football, happened at Penn. St.
I love college football. When I was 6, I thought the "N" on the Nebraska helmet was for my name "Nils". Since then I've been in love with Nebraska football. I watched Nebraska loss two straight national championships, then win two straight for their own, wait a year, and win another.
Some of my favorite memories are of college football. I remember watching Notre Dame beat Florida St. in 1993 at Jamie Herran's house, Tommie Frasier running over the entire Florida team in the 95 Fiesta Bowl.
I've been in love with college football ever since.
But then November 6, 2011 happens, every college football fan has heard what happened at State College, PA.
My youth is gone. My love of college football is gone.
A sub-human, piece of shit is outed for doing the unthinkable, being a predator, a rapist.
And the winniest coach in college football history, covered it up.
Joe Pa, from what the facts have given us, let a criminal - to the utmost degree - stroll freely though the Penn St. campus with small children at his disposal. I truly wish that last sentence didn't exist.
We all think of what we would do to Jerry Sandusky if we had the chance. (I'd make The Wire look like a PBS program). But we can't, we can only look back at Penn St. Most importantly, Joe.
LBJ was running the country when Joe Paterno started as head coach at Penn St. He more than double the capacity of Beaver Stadium to over 100,000 people in his tenure. Never once, did he have a recruiting violation, while leading the Nittnay Lions. But then 10 days ago happened. The great coach fell. Not only from the pantheon of great signal caller, but from human beings.
Joe wrote letters about finishing out the season, not understanding that lives have been destroyed, not because they had a losing record like Penn St. did in 2002, but because the most powerful person in the history of Penn St. decided to do not save a boy's life, but instead save his own legacy and continue a pointless college football tradition. Because of this he shall fall, and fall the hardest a football coach can ever fall.
Who ever wins this years National Title, wins it for the victims of this Penn St. Tragedy.
But all of this means nothing to me. The worst thing that could happened in college football, happened at Penn. St.
I love college football. When I was 6, I thought the "N" on the Nebraska helmet was for my name "Nils". Since then I've been in love with Nebraska football. I watched Nebraska loss two straight national championships, then win two straight for their own, wait a year, and win another.
Some of my favorite memories are of college football. I remember watching Notre Dame beat Florida St. in 1993 at Jamie Herran's house, Tommie Frasier running over the entire Florida team in the 95 Fiesta Bowl.
I've been in love with college football ever since.
But then November 6, 2011 happens, every college football fan has heard what happened at State College, PA.
My youth is gone. My love of college football is gone.
A sub-human, piece of shit is outed for doing the unthinkable, being a predator, a rapist.
And the winniest coach in college football history, covered it up.
Joe Pa, from what the facts have given us, let a criminal - to the utmost degree - stroll freely though the Penn St. campus with small children at his disposal. I truly wish that last sentence didn't exist.
We all think of what we would do to Jerry Sandusky if we had the chance. (I'd make The Wire look like a PBS program). But we can't, we can only look back at Penn St. Most importantly, Joe.
LBJ was running the country when Joe Paterno started as head coach at Penn St. He more than double the capacity of Beaver Stadium to over 100,000 people in his tenure. Never once, did he have a recruiting violation, while leading the Nittnay Lions. But then 10 days ago happened. The great coach fell. Not only from the pantheon of great signal caller, but from human beings.
Joe wrote letters about finishing out the season, not understanding that lives have been destroyed, not because they had a losing record like Penn St. did in 2002, but because the most powerful person in the history of Penn St. decided to do not save a boy's life, but instead save his own legacy and continue a pointless college football tradition. Because of this he shall fall, and fall the hardest a football coach can ever fall.
Who ever wins this years National Title, wins it for the victims of this Penn St. Tragedy.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Week 11
I'm not going to say much about Penn St. because I can't add anything to what Kim Jones has impeccably said already. If you feel the need to read another opinion or get a take from a Penn St. grad, Kim's reporting has been the most accurate and her take has been spot on, I'm sure you can find audio on the WFAN's site. Joe Pa deserved to be fired. When it comes to Sandusky, I want Stinkum, Wee-Bey and Stringer Bell to do to him, what they did to Brandon is Season 1 of the The Wire.
Okay. Let's get to Week 11 in this strange world we call college football. It is a decent week for college football, no games of the century, but the national title picture could very well be shaken up on Saturday.
In the early games the big TV game for both on-the-field and off-the-field reasons in Nebraska at Penn St. Instead of going into that game which has become impossible to analysis on a strictly football level, I'm going to go with the Oklahoma St. v. Texas Tech game. The game at State College has the soap opera factor, but the game in Lubbock, TX has the national title contender factor.
This game has more to do with seeing Oklahoma St. play, than it is about an intriguing game. This is the time of the year when we need to starting thinking about which teams are good enough to play for the BCS title in January. We know LSU is good enough and will most likely be there, the jury is still out on the Cowboys. The Oklahoma St. offense is the Albert Pujols of college football offenses, it's a machine. There are players on this team that you just need to see, if it's just because you love college football or you want to see who will be in the NFL draft in April. It starts with quarterback Brandon Weeden, from a numbers point he has completed 72 percent of his passes for 3212 yards for 26 scores. But it is about consistency with Weeden, only once this season he has thrown less than 2 TDs and broken the 300 yard barrier five times. A big part of Weeden and OK-State's success has been the receiving crew. Justin Blackmon, Josh Cooper and Tracy Moore are all NFL caliber wide-outs. Blackmon is the best receiver in the NCAA and will be the top receiver taken in April. Cut from the same mold as former Oklahoma St. Cowboy Dez Bryant, Blackmon is tied for tops in the nation in touchdown catches, third in receptions and seventh in yards. More than just numbers, Blackmon is fun to watch, when ever he touches the ball he can break it. He is on the same level as Bryant when it comes to size and skill, and since you probably don't hate Oklahoma St. this is a good time and game to take a look at this wide receiver before he starts playing on Sundays and your routing interest may come into effect. Also take a look at their running back Joseph Randle, this blogger thinks he can succeed on the next level.
The afternoon games don't give us much, Rutgers plays Army at Yankee Stadium, I'm a stadium nerd and I love these types of games. Whether it is the Winter Classic or a bowl game at Yankee Stadium or Cal playing in AT&T Park, I love it. I love when sports are played at non-traditional venues. If you have a few minutes Saturday and can find this game on TV, you should take a look, it's a pretty cool thing to see.
But that game is going to suck, I went to the State University of New Jersey and that game is going to suck. The best football game in the afternoon slot is Auburn going between the hedges in Athens to take on Georgia. Both teams are ranked, the Bulldogs are in the drivers seat for the SEC East crown and a win Saturday will all but clinch it with Kentucky being the lone conference game left on the schedule for Georgia. When Saturdays role around and two traditional SEC powers are playing each other, it is usually a safe bet it will be a compelling game to watch. Quarterback Aaron Murray has righted the ship from the back-to-back losses to start the season and won seven straight. He is a good QB that doesn't make too many mistakes even with a lack-luster receiving core. The player to watch in this game is running back Isaiah Crowell, who will start after sitting out a one-game suspension for violating "team rules". Crowell is explosive with the ball. He's one of those backs that either gets stopped for no gain or breaks it for 20, I love watching players like that.
Auburn on the other side is a team that can not play with the top powers in the country, but they play everyone else well. They have been beat pretty easily by LSU, Arkansas and Clemson, but they do have a nice victory over South Carolina when they still had Marcus Lattimore and Florida. Auburn succeeds with it's running game. Michael Dyer is the main back, a sophomore who was overshadowed by Cam Newton last season, and Onterio McCalebb, a third down back that can catch ball out of the backfield. Dyer is 11 yards away from 1000 for the season, it will be his season consecutive season with 1000-plus yards. In Auburn's biggest win against South Carolina, Dyer was a work-horse, carrying the ball 41 times for 141 and a score. More importantly in that game Dyer made big first downs and help Auburn run 40 plays more than South Carolina.
In the night games, it is all about Stanford and Oregon. This is the defacto Pac-12 title game. Oregon has one loss this year and it is to top ranked LSU. Stanford has not lost this season and has future number-one overall pick Andrew Luck leading the team. Both of these teams still have a chance to play for the BCS championship (Stanford has a better shot, but both team can make it) and are exciting to watch.
We'll start with the visitors from Oregon. The Ducks made too many mistakes and lost in week one against LSU, but there have bounced back and won every match-up since. They have overcome some injuries to their best players, including all-everything back LaMichael James and starting QB Darron Thomas. Oregon runs the ball using misdirection and their speed and ability to get to the corners. Some say it is a system running game, and in some aspects that is correct, but there is a lot of talent there also. It starts with James, he's played seven games this season, missing two to injury, he's carried the ball for 200-plus yards three times this season, including 288 yards against Arizona. Stanford is pretty good against the run, but 200 yards is 200 yards and James will get his this weekend. Oregon has a very good stable of backs and a QB that can run the option well. Darron Thomas does not run for as many yards as most option QB do, mainly because his running backs are that talented. Thomas does use the threat of the option to benefit his passing attack, defenses need to respect the run and they tend to load up the box in order to contain James and the other running backs, Thomas is very adapt at waiting for the defense to commit and then take a shot down field or use their speedy receivers on screens and slants.
Stanford is undefeated and trying to make a serious claims at a spot in the title game. The cardinal have played a pretty weak schedule, this has a lot to do with a mediocre Pac-12 (specifically the north division) and a bad out of conference schedule. With that all said Stanford has beaten everyone on the schedule and except for USC beaten then convincingly. Luck has played brilliantly this season, picking apart every team on the schedule and making big throws against USC (front runner for game of the year this season). Stanford's offense is more balanced than the Andrew Luck's hype has you believe. They have a good offensive line that does not let Luck get hit and helps the running game average over 224 yards per contest. That number is a little inflated by the weak schedule and 446 yard rushing performance against Washington. With that all said, this team succeeds and would fail with Andrew Luck. Quick stat line: 71.3-2424-26-5. That's really good, multiple TDs in all games, four 300 yard passing games. Luck makes smart decisions, makes great throws and knows this offense exceptionally well. We have all heard how good he is, if you didn't see the USC game, this is going to be a great opportunity to see him against a good opponent.
Since Stanford and Oregon are playing at 8, there is no reason to watch any of the late games. I advise you to get some sleep or get a drink, I plan on the latter.
The Picks
Went 4-1 last week, I blame myself for the South Carolina pick, 6-4 on the season since the start of this blog.
(6) Oregon (+3.5) at (3) Stanford
(24) Auburn (+13) at (14) Georgia
This line really jumped out at me. Georgia is the better and should win at home, but Auburn is pretty good in its own right and Georgia only bet Florida by 4. Georgia wins, but definitely not by 13, give me the points.
(22) Michigan (-1) at Illinois
Illinois has lost 3 straight in the Big Ten and is not a good football team. Michigan is 7-2 and coming of a loss to Iowa and looking to stay ranked and keep it's slight chances at making the Big Ten title game. Denard Robinson is going to be the best offensive player on the field. I think Michigan is better and wins, at worst I push in that scenario.
(13) Michigan St. (-2.5) at Iowa
I was tempted to take Ok-State giving 17 here, but I like Michigan St. against Iowa. Iowa had a nice win last week, but they are having a down year and Michigan St. can take a big step to locking up their division on Saturday with a win and 2.5 seems kinda small.
Middle Tennessee St. (+6) at Louisiana-Monroe
I'm going to continue my road team trend for the week with this Sun Belt showdown. Both teams have 2 wins on the season and one in the conference. ULM's conference win is against Troy and MT's is against a some how worse Florida Atlantic. ULM only lost by one to UL-Lafayette and MT got crushed. All signs point to UL-Monroe as being better than Mid-Tennessee. And that is why I'm going with Middle Tennessee St. That is top notch handicapping and analysis right there, I truly have a gift.
Have a good Thursday, Va. Tech plays Georgia Tech in a top 20 ACC battle tonight, it's a good game to watch if you don't get the NFL Network for Raiders-Chargers game. Take the Chargers giving the points more on that at here.
Okay. Let's get to Week 11 in this strange world we call college football. It is a decent week for college football, no games of the century, but the national title picture could very well be shaken up on Saturday.
In the early games the big TV game for both on-the-field and off-the-field reasons in Nebraska at Penn St. Instead of going into that game which has become impossible to analysis on a strictly football level, I'm going to go with the Oklahoma St. v. Texas Tech game. The game at State College has the soap opera factor, but the game in Lubbock, TX has the national title contender factor.
This game has more to do with seeing Oklahoma St. play, than it is about an intriguing game. This is the time of the year when we need to starting thinking about which teams are good enough to play for the BCS title in January. We know LSU is good enough and will most likely be there, the jury is still out on the Cowboys. The Oklahoma St. offense is the Albert Pujols of college football offenses, it's a machine. There are players on this team that you just need to see, if it's just because you love college football or you want to see who will be in the NFL draft in April. It starts with quarterback Brandon Weeden, from a numbers point he has completed 72 percent of his passes for 3212 yards for 26 scores. But it is about consistency with Weeden, only once this season he has thrown less than 2 TDs and broken the 300 yard barrier five times. A big part of Weeden and OK-State's success has been the receiving crew. Justin Blackmon, Josh Cooper and Tracy Moore are all NFL caliber wide-outs. Blackmon is the best receiver in the NCAA and will be the top receiver taken in April. Cut from the same mold as former Oklahoma St. Cowboy Dez Bryant, Blackmon is tied for tops in the nation in touchdown catches, third in receptions and seventh in yards. More than just numbers, Blackmon is fun to watch, when ever he touches the ball he can break it. He is on the same level as Bryant when it comes to size and skill, and since you probably don't hate Oklahoma St. this is a good time and game to take a look at this wide receiver before he starts playing on Sundays and your routing interest may come into effect. Also take a look at their running back Joseph Randle, this blogger thinks he can succeed on the next level.
The afternoon games don't give us much, Rutgers plays Army at Yankee Stadium, I'm a stadium nerd and I love these types of games. Whether it is the Winter Classic or a bowl game at Yankee Stadium or Cal playing in AT&T Park, I love it. I love when sports are played at non-traditional venues. If you have a few minutes Saturday and can find this game on TV, you should take a look, it's a pretty cool thing to see.
But that game is going to suck, I went to the State University of New Jersey and that game is going to suck. The best football game in the afternoon slot is Auburn going between the hedges in Athens to take on Georgia. Both teams are ranked, the Bulldogs are in the drivers seat for the SEC East crown and a win Saturday will all but clinch it with Kentucky being the lone conference game left on the schedule for Georgia. When Saturdays role around and two traditional SEC powers are playing each other, it is usually a safe bet it will be a compelling game to watch. Quarterback Aaron Murray has righted the ship from the back-to-back losses to start the season and won seven straight. He is a good QB that doesn't make too many mistakes even with a lack-luster receiving core. The player to watch in this game is running back Isaiah Crowell, who will start after sitting out a one-game suspension for violating "team rules". Crowell is explosive with the ball. He's one of those backs that either gets stopped for no gain or breaks it for 20, I love watching players like that.
Auburn on the other side is a team that can not play with the top powers in the country, but they play everyone else well. They have been beat pretty easily by LSU, Arkansas and Clemson, but they do have a nice victory over South Carolina when they still had Marcus Lattimore and Florida. Auburn succeeds with it's running game. Michael Dyer is the main back, a sophomore who was overshadowed by Cam Newton last season, and Onterio McCalebb, a third down back that can catch ball out of the backfield. Dyer is 11 yards away from 1000 for the season, it will be his season consecutive season with 1000-plus yards. In Auburn's biggest win against South Carolina, Dyer was a work-horse, carrying the ball 41 times for 141 and a score. More importantly in that game Dyer made big first downs and help Auburn run 40 plays more than South Carolina.
In the night games, it is all about Stanford and Oregon. This is the defacto Pac-12 title game. Oregon has one loss this year and it is to top ranked LSU. Stanford has not lost this season and has future number-one overall pick Andrew Luck leading the team. Both of these teams still have a chance to play for the BCS championship (Stanford has a better shot, but both team can make it) and are exciting to watch.
We'll start with the visitors from Oregon. The Ducks made too many mistakes and lost in week one against LSU, but there have bounced back and won every match-up since. They have overcome some injuries to their best players, including all-everything back LaMichael James and starting QB Darron Thomas. Oregon runs the ball using misdirection and their speed and ability to get to the corners. Some say it is a system running game, and in some aspects that is correct, but there is a lot of talent there also. It starts with James, he's played seven games this season, missing two to injury, he's carried the ball for 200-plus yards three times this season, including 288 yards against Arizona. Stanford is pretty good against the run, but 200 yards is 200 yards and James will get his this weekend. Oregon has a very good stable of backs and a QB that can run the option well. Darron Thomas does not run for as many yards as most option QB do, mainly because his running backs are that talented. Thomas does use the threat of the option to benefit his passing attack, defenses need to respect the run and they tend to load up the box in order to contain James and the other running backs, Thomas is very adapt at waiting for the defense to commit and then take a shot down field or use their speedy receivers on screens and slants.
Stanford is undefeated and trying to make a serious claims at a spot in the title game. The cardinal have played a pretty weak schedule, this has a lot to do with a mediocre Pac-12 (specifically the north division) and a bad out of conference schedule. With that all said Stanford has beaten everyone on the schedule and except for USC beaten then convincingly. Luck has played brilliantly this season, picking apart every team on the schedule and making big throws against USC (front runner for game of the year this season). Stanford's offense is more balanced than the Andrew Luck's hype has you believe. They have a good offensive line that does not let Luck get hit and helps the running game average over 224 yards per contest. That number is a little inflated by the weak schedule and 446 yard rushing performance against Washington. With that all said, this team succeeds and would fail with Andrew Luck. Quick stat line: 71.3-2424-26-5. That's really good, multiple TDs in all games, four 300 yard passing games. Luck makes smart decisions, makes great throws and knows this offense exceptionally well. We have all heard how good he is, if you didn't see the USC game, this is going to be a great opportunity to see him against a good opponent.
Since Stanford and Oregon are playing at 8, there is no reason to watch any of the late games. I advise you to get some sleep or get a drink, I plan on the latter.
The Picks
Went 4-1 last week, I blame myself for the South Carolina pick, 6-4 on the season since the start of this blog.
(6) Oregon (+3.5) at (3) Stanford
Stanford has one of the worst home field advantages in the nation. They rarely sellout, this one will, but it is not a tough place to play. Oregon has been some what overlooked since the week 1 loss and being on the west coast. I think the offenses can and will keep it close through out the game and a last score wins it, I'm leaning toward Oregon getting that last score.
(24) Auburn (+13) at (14) Georgia
This line really jumped out at me. Georgia is the better and should win at home, but Auburn is pretty good in its own right and Georgia only bet Florida by 4. Georgia wins, but definitely not by 13, give me the points.
(22) Michigan (-1) at Illinois
Illinois has lost 3 straight in the Big Ten and is not a good football team. Michigan is 7-2 and coming of a loss to Iowa and looking to stay ranked and keep it's slight chances at making the Big Ten title game. Denard Robinson is going to be the best offensive player on the field. I think Michigan is better and wins, at worst I push in that scenario.
(13) Michigan St. (-2.5) at Iowa
I was tempted to take Ok-State giving 17 here, but I like Michigan St. against Iowa. Iowa had a nice win last week, but they are having a down year and Michigan St. can take a big step to locking up their division on Saturday with a win and 2.5 seems kinda small.
Middle Tennessee St. (+6) at Louisiana-Monroe
I'm going to continue my road team trend for the week with this Sun Belt showdown. Both teams have 2 wins on the season and one in the conference. ULM's conference win is against Troy and MT's is against a some how worse Florida Atlantic. ULM only lost by one to UL-Lafayette and MT got crushed. All signs point to UL-Monroe as being better than Mid-Tennessee. And that is why I'm going with Middle Tennessee St. That is top notch handicapping and analysis right there, I truly have a gift.
Have a good Thursday, Va. Tech plays Georgia Tech in a top 20 ACC battle tonight, it's a good game to watch if you don't get the NFL Network for Raiders-Chargers game. Take the Chargers giving the points more on that at here.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Game of the Century...maybe not
On Saturday night, the Gods reached down from their thrones in the heavens, down to Tuscaloosa, Alabama and gave the sports world a fantastic pretty good borderline okay football game.
The only certainty going into this game was both teams had great defenses. That part stays true. When either offense gained a decent chunk of yards, I thought they were going to tie a few plays together and produce a successful drive. That never happened, partially because of both defenses playing to their lofty skill levels, but also because both offenses are closers to being bad than good. Trent Richardson was the best player on the offensive side of the ball for either team and seemed to be able to somewhat figure out the LSU defense and played the role of the receiving safety blanket for his quarterback. But the talent really stopped their for the offense on Saturday.
LSU won this game because of Alabama's special teams shortcomings. I know special teams are part of the game and if a team does not execute on teams they can lose, but when big games are decided by mistakes on special teams, it does not make for games of the century, or decade, year or even a Saturday in November.
In this battle of elite defenses, Alabama was better than LSU for almost all of the games. Michael Ford's 15 yard run in OT was the longest rush by an LSU running back given up by the Tide all game. Bama forced two INTs by the Tiger's quarterback Jarrett Lee and that is no small task this season. They held the LSU runners to 148 yards on 41 carries and both Tiger's QBs to only 91 yards through the air.
Looking at game as a whole, Alabama was the better team, mainly because their defense is slightly better than LSU's. The one big problem for the Crimson Tide was that Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley play for them, and they play the position of place kicker. For those of you that watched the game Saturday know that was a terrible thing for Alabama. Foster went 1-4 and Shelley 1-2 (his miss was a block).
On the LSU side, Brad Wing was the best special teams player on the field, and maybe the best player period. The Tiger's punter put five punts on the 20 yard line or better, including his first two on the five and four respectively and a 73 yard punt to the 18.
Last week, I was under the full belief that the loser of this game (as long as it wasn't a blowout) deserved a rematch in the National Title game. This week, I have switched my stance, both Oklahoma St. and Stanford deserve to put their big time offenses up against LSU's defense.
There are two more huge games left before the conference championship weekend. Stanford-Oregon on Saturday and Oklahoma-Oklahoma St. the last week of the season. Hopefully for us college football and sports fans out there, these games will be better games.
The only certainty going into this game was both teams had great defenses. That part stays true. When either offense gained a decent chunk of yards, I thought they were going to tie a few plays together and produce a successful drive. That never happened, partially because of both defenses playing to their lofty skill levels, but also because both offenses are closers to being bad than good. Trent Richardson was the best player on the offensive side of the ball for either team and seemed to be able to somewhat figure out the LSU defense and played the role of the receiving safety blanket for his quarterback. But the talent really stopped their for the offense on Saturday.
LSU won this game because of Alabama's special teams shortcomings. I know special teams are part of the game and if a team does not execute on teams they can lose, but when big games are decided by mistakes on special teams, it does not make for games of the century, or decade, year or even a Saturday in November.
In this battle of elite defenses, Alabama was better than LSU for almost all of the games. Michael Ford's 15 yard run in OT was the longest rush by an LSU running back given up by the Tide all game. Bama forced two INTs by the Tiger's quarterback Jarrett Lee and that is no small task this season. They held the LSU runners to 148 yards on 41 carries and both Tiger's QBs to only 91 yards through the air.
Looking at game as a whole, Alabama was the better team, mainly because their defense is slightly better than LSU's. The one big problem for the Crimson Tide was that Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley play for them, and they play the position of place kicker. For those of you that watched the game Saturday know that was a terrible thing for Alabama. Foster went 1-4 and Shelley 1-2 (his miss was a block).
On the LSU side, Brad Wing was the best special teams player on the field, and maybe the best player period. The Tiger's punter put five punts on the 20 yard line or better, including his first two on the five and four respectively and a 73 yard punt to the 18.
Last week, I was under the full belief that the loser of this game (as long as it wasn't a blowout) deserved a rematch in the National Title game. This week, I have switched my stance, both Oklahoma St. and Stanford deserve to put their big time offenses up against LSU's defense.
There are two more huge games left before the conference championship weekend. Stanford-Oregon on Saturday and Oklahoma-Oklahoma St. the last week of the season. Hopefully for us college football and sports fans out there, these games will be better games.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Game of the Century!
In the blue corner. With a record of eight wins and zero losses, from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, The Louisiana State University Tigers...
And in the red corner. With a record of eight wins and zero losses, from Tuscaloosa, Alabama, The University of Alabama Crimson Tide.
With the Mayweather and Pacquiao camps talking about that possible fight of the century, it got me thinking about this Saturday's clash being more of fight than a game. Since about week three these teams have looked like the two best teams in the land. After Oklahoma's loss, it became clear LSU and Alabama are the class of the NCAA. Tomorrow, we get the privilege of watching these perennial SEC powerhouses battle it out in central Alabama. There are other college football games this week, but at the same time, there are not.
LSU
We shall start with the visitors. Ranked 1st in the nation for the last six weeks, the Tigers have faced five ranked opponents in their first eight games, if the win they SEC west there is a good chance they will play 10 ranked teams this season. That's a mind-boggling number in modern college football. Just looking at the final scores this season, only Oregon and Mississippi St have been within 20 after the final whistle. Only four teams have scored double digits this year, two of those team (Florida and Auburn) tallied 11 and 10 respectfully.
On the field, like their opponents, it is about speed and defense. Sophomore defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, known as the Honey Badger, anchors this defense. Arguably the best player in the game (about 10 guys realistically can lay claim to that title) Tyrann has been all over the field this season. In seven games (suspended for the last tilt) he has forced four fumbles, recovering three, to go along with two picks and two touchdowns. In week one against Oregon, Mathieu came up big, racking up 10 total tackles. But the big play was early in the second quarter, playing on the punt team, the Honey Badger stripped the returner, picked the ball up and scored to help LSU beat the then third ranked team in the nation.
One of the reasons this LSU team is so good, is the speed on the edges. Oregon and Florida struggled to get to the corners against the Tigers and that was a big part of their undoing. The defense has held their opponents to 2.5 yards per carry. Defensive end Barkevious Mingo is part of the reason why. In eight games Mingo has a team leading 7.5 tackles for loss and his four sacks are tied for the most on the team with fellow D-lineman Sam Montgomery.
On the offensive side of the ball LSU will not blow the doors off of teams, but they don't make mistake either. So far this season Jarrett Lee threw an interception against Miss St, the team fumbled against Oregon and Takhari Gore coughed up the ball against Northwestern St. That's it.
This season, Jarrett Lee has been the starter after Jordan Jefferson got suspended for fighting in a bar (I know, I can't believe it either). Lee epitomizes a game control quarterback. Not needed to make big plays to win, Lee has continually made the right decisions, completing over 63 percent of his passes and 13 scores. Jefferson has now assumed the role of a change of pace QB. He is averaging over four yards a rush on 26 carries and can throw the ball with two scores in ten attempts. They are enough of a duel threat, that defenses have to game plan for both players, not an easy task, but the Crimson Tide have the players to do so.
LSU does hold the special teams edge in this game. Punter Brad Wing averages 44.5 yards per punt and their kick coverage is magnificent. The kick coverage makes tackles to limit return yards and create turnovers.
LSU's head coach, Les Miles, is the Charlie Day of college football. I could totally see Miles turning to his coaching staff after running a triple reverse fake punt and screaming "Wild Card". Les loves to throw in trick plays in games like this, watch for them, they can swing a game in both directions.
Alabama
Alabama has not played as tough of a schedule so far as LSU, but it certainly wasn't an easy one. Arkansas and their high-powered offense are tops when it comes to scoring against the tide, with 14, yes fourteen. Arkansas and Penn St are both one-loss teams, they would be undefeated if Alabama hadn't been on their schedule, combined they have scored 25 points against the Tide. That would not have beaten them in any game this year.
Just like their counterparts from Baton Rouge, the Tide's success comes from their defense. Bama has given up 55 total points over 8 games, that's 6.9 points per game. Moving the ball against Alabama is not easy, it may be impossible to do it on the ground. Opponents have averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry. It doesn't stop with the run defense, Alabama is only giving up 180.5 total yards per game.
Since 2008, Nick Saban's team has only lost 4 SEC games (South Carolina, Auburn, LSU last year and Florida in '08). In those games Florida's 22 pass attempts is the high water mark, the other three threw just 20 times. That shows in recent years, the way to beat the Tide is to run the ball a lot and only throw when needed. In those games all four teams rushed for over 100 yards (including a robust 225 by LSU last year). The problem for LSU this year is 2011 Alabama defense is better than last year and loaded with future NFL players.
Dont'A Hightower and Courtney Upshaw lead a defense that may send all 11 starters to the NFL. Hightower tops the defensive unit with 48 tackles from the linebacker position. The senior Upshaw has brought down opposing players an astounding 11.5 times behind the line of scrimmage, along with a team high 4.5 sacks.
Veteran senior free safety Mark Barron headlines the Alabama secondary, that CBS commentor Gary Danielson says will have 5 DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. Along with Hightower, a semi-finalist for the Lott Trophy, given to the nation's top defensive player. Barron is second on the team in tackles with 38 and 3.5 for losses, along with one INT.
The offense plays second fiddle to the their defense, but has put up a lot of points this year. The offense starts and revolves around their Heisman candidate running back Trent Richardson. Trent is 11 yards from breaking the 1,000 yard plateau for the season. He scored 17 touchdowns on the ground and one through the air. The best thing for Richardson and Alabama is that he does not have to rely on getting to the corners to be successful. LSU will close off the corners and make runners go straight at their defense between the tackles. This is Richardson's specialty, if the Tide end up winning this game, his ability to run north-south and finding the holes when they appear will be the main reason.
At the quarterback position the Tide will send out a pure game-manager in A.J. McCarron. Like his counter-part in Jarrett Lee, McCarron is on the field to help guide the team and not make mistakes. So far this season he has only thrown three interceptions (backup Phillip Sims has thrown two). The LSU defense is exceptional at creating turnovers, McCarron will have to make sure he holds on to the football and continues to throw smart passes. An ill timed turnover would play a huge role in this game, especially with LSU's extraordinary ball security skills.
Nick Saban has two national titles (one at Bama and one at LSU), with Urban Meyer coaching the ESPN flag football team, Saban is firmly planted on top of the coaching mountain right now and there for has the coaching edge on Saturday. With that said a win for the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, would take a giant step toward that peak.
The Picks
I went 2-3 last week, thanks to Georgia and Oklahoma doing their job
(1) LSU (+4.5) at (2) Alabama
I think Alabama should be favored in this game, but 4.5 in a game with two great defenses is too high. I expect this score to be low and I can see a field goal winning this game.
(7) Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. Texas A&M
Oklahoma destroyed K-State last week, they are still pissed off about the lose to Tech, Landry Jones threw 5 scores against a decent defense. A&M does not have a decent defense. Oklahoma wins by at least two scores.
(10) South Carolina (+5) at (8) Arkansas
Arkansas is a very good team and could give LSU a test at the end of the year. South Carolina lost their best player two weeks ago for the season. But the old ball coach has a defense, they can rush the passer and keeps games close. Arkansas will probably win, but I think it will be by a late score, not a blow out.
(4) Stanford (+21) at Oregon St
Stanford gets the lesser of the Oregon schools this week, before getting the big boys next week. The beavers sucks, Stanford had their scare last week, I think Andrew Luck picks this defense apart and they win by 30.
Idaho (+8.5) at San Jose St
Idaho is 1-7 and San Jose St is 3-5. Not much more than pride to play for in this WAC battle. Idaho has a player name Njoku, just Njoku. He has one tackle this year, I see a breakout game for Mr. Njoku and a win for the Vandals.
Every time I typed "wins" in this post, I typed "wings" instead, now I want chicken wings.
And in the red corner. With a record of eight wins and zero losses, from Tuscaloosa, Alabama, The University of Alabama Crimson Tide.
With the Mayweather and Pacquiao camps talking about that possible fight of the century, it got me thinking about this Saturday's clash being more of fight than a game. Since about week three these teams have looked like the two best teams in the land. After Oklahoma's loss, it became clear LSU and Alabama are the class of the NCAA. Tomorrow, we get the privilege of watching these perennial SEC powerhouses battle it out in central Alabama. There are other college football games this week, but at the same time, there are not.
LSU
We shall start with the visitors. Ranked 1st in the nation for the last six weeks, the Tigers have faced five ranked opponents in their first eight games, if the win they SEC west there is a good chance they will play 10 ranked teams this season. That's a mind-boggling number in modern college football. Just looking at the final scores this season, only Oregon and Mississippi St have been within 20 after the final whistle. Only four teams have scored double digits this year, two of those team (Florida and Auburn) tallied 11 and 10 respectfully.
On the field, like their opponents, it is about speed and defense. Sophomore defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, known as the Honey Badger, anchors this defense. Arguably the best player in the game (about 10 guys realistically can lay claim to that title) Tyrann has been all over the field this season. In seven games (suspended for the last tilt) he has forced four fumbles, recovering three, to go along with two picks and two touchdowns. In week one against Oregon, Mathieu came up big, racking up 10 total tackles. But the big play was early in the second quarter, playing on the punt team, the Honey Badger stripped the returner, picked the ball up and scored to help LSU beat the then third ranked team in the nation.
One of the reasons this LSU team is so good, is the speed on the edges. Oregon and Florida struggled to get to the corners against the Tigers and that was a big part of their undoing. The defense has held their opponents to 2.5 yards per carry. Defensive end Barkevious Mingo is part of the reason why. In eight games Mingo has a team leading 7.5 tackles for loss and his four sacks are tied for the most on the team with fellow D-lineman Sam Montgomery.
On the offensive side of the ball LSU will not blow the doors off of teams, but they don't make mistake either. So far this season Jarrett Lee threw an interception against Miss St, the team fumbled against Oregon and Takhari Gore coughed up the ball against Northwestern St. That's it.
This season, Jarrett Lee has been the starter after Jordan Jefferson got suspended for fighting in a bar (I know, I can't believe it either). Lee epitomizes a game control quarterback. Not needed to make big plays to win, Lee has continually made the right decisions, completing over 63 percent of his passes and 13 scores. Jefferson has now assumed the role of a change of pace QB. He is averaging over four yards a rush on 26 carries and can throw the ball with two scores in ten attempts. They are enough of a duel threat, that defenses have to game plan for both players, not an easy task, but the Crimson Tide have the players to do so.
LSU does hold the special teams edge in this game. Punter Brad Wing averages 44.5 yards per punt and their kick coverage is magnificent. The kick coverage makes tackles to limit return yards and create turnovers.
LSU's head coach, Les Miles, is the Charlie Day of college football. I could totally see Miles turning to his coaching staff after running a triple reverse fake punt and screaming "Wild Card". Les loves to throw in trick plays in games like this, watch for them, they can swing a game in both directions.
Alabama
Alabama has not played as tough of a schedule so far as LSU, but it certainly wasn't an easy one. Arkansas and their high-powered offense are tops when it comes to scoring against the tide, with 14, yes fourteen. Arkansas and Penn St are both one-loss teams, they would be undefeated if Alabama hadn't been on their schedule, combined they have scored 25 points against the Tide. That would not have beaten them in any game this year.
Just like their counterparts from Baton Rouge, the Tide's success comes from their defense. Bama has given up 55 total points over 8 games, that's 6.9 points per game. Moving the ball against Alabama is not easy, it may be impossible to do it on the ground. Opponents have averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry. It doesn't stop with the run defense, Alabama is only giving up 180.5 total yards per game.
Since 2008, Nick Saban's team has only lost 4 SEC games (South Carolina, Auburn, LSU last year and Florida in '08). In those games Florida's 22 pass attempts is the high water mark, the other three threw just 20 times. That shows in recent years, the way to beat the Tide is to run the ball a lot and only throw when needed. In those games all four teams rushed for over 100 yards (including a robust 225 by LSU last year). The problem for LSU this year is 2011 Alabama defense is better than last year and loaded with future NFL players.
Dont'A Hightower and Courtney Upshaw lead a defense that may send all 11 starters to the NFL. Hightower tops the defensive unit with 48 tackles from the linebacker position. The senior Upshaw has brought down opposing players an astounding 11.5 times behind the line of scrimmage, along with a team high 4.5 sacks.
Veteran senior free safety Mark Barron headlines the Alabama secondary, that CBS commentor Gary Danielson says will have 5 DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. Along with Hightower, a semi-finalist for the Lott Trophy, given to the nation's top defensive player. Barron is second on the team in tackles with 38 and 3.5 for losses, along with one INT.
The offense plays second fiddle to the their defense, but has put up a lot of points this year. The offense starts and revolves around their Heisman candidate running back Trent Richardson. Trent is 11 yards from breaking the 1,000 yard plateau for the season. He scored 17 touchdowns on the ground and one through the air. The best thing for Richardson and Alabama is that he does not have to rely on getting to the corners to be successful. LSU will close off the corners and make runners go straight at their defense between the tackles. This is Richardson's specialty, if the Tide end up winning this game, his ability to run north-south and finding the holes when they appear will be the main reason.
At the quarterback position the Tide will send out a pure game-manager in A.J. McCarron. Like his counter-part in Jarrett Lee, McCarron is on the field to help guide the team and not make mistakes. So far this season he has only thrown three interceptions (backup Phillip Sims has thrown two). The LSU defense is exceptional at creating turnovers, McCarron will have to make sure he holds on to the football and continues to throw smart passes. An ill timed turnover would play a huge role in this game, especially with LSU's extraordinary ball security skills.
Nick Saban has two national titles (one at Bama and one at LSU), with Urban Meyer coaching the ESPN flag football team, Saban is firmly planted on top of the coaching mountain right now and there for has the coaching edge on Saturday. With that said a win for the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, would take a giant step toward that peak.
The Picks
I went 2-3 last week, thanks to Georgia and Oklahoma doing their job
(1) LSU (+4.5) at (2) Alabama
I think Alabama should be favored in this game, but 4.5 in a game with two great defenses is too high. I expect this score to be low and I can see a field goal winning this game.
(7) Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. Texas A&M
Oklahoma destroyed K-State last week, they are still pissed off about the lose to Tech, Landry Jones threw 5 scores against a decent defense. A&M does not have a decent defense. Oklahoma wins by at least two scores.
(10) South Carolina (+5) at (8) Arkansas
Arkansas is a very good team and could give LSU a test at the end of the year. South Carolina lost their best player two weeks ago for the season. But the old ball coach has a defense, they can rush the passer and keeps games close. Arkansas will probably win, but I think it will be by a late score, not a blow out.
(4) Stanford (+21) at Oregon St
Stanford gets the lesser of the Oregon schools this week, before getting the big boys next week. The beavers sucks, Stanford had their scare last week, I think Andrew Luck picks this defense apart and they win by 30.
Idaho (+8.5) at San Jose St
Idaho is 1-7 and San Jose St is 3-5. Not much more than pride to play for in this WAC battle. Idaho has a player name Njoku, just Njoku. He has one tackle this year, I see a breakout game for Mr. Njoku and a win for the Vandals.
Every time I typed "wins" in this post, I typed "wings" instead, now I want chicken wings.
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