Game of the Century!

 In the blue corner.  With a record of eight wins and zero losses, from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, The Louisiana State University Tigers...

And in the red corner.  With a record of eight wins and zero losses, from Tuscaloosa, Alabama, The University of Alabama Crimson Tide.

With the Mayweather and Pacquiao camps talking about that possible fight of the century, it got me thinking about this Saturday's clash being more of fight than a game.  Since about week three these teams have looked like the two best teams in the land.  After Oklahoma's loss, it became clear LSU and Alabama are the class of the NCAA.  Tomorrow, we get the privilege of watching these perennial SEC powerhouses battle it out in central Alabama.  There are other college football games this week, but at the same time, there are not.
 
LSU

We shall start with the visitors.  Ranked 1st in the nation for the last six weeks, the Tigers have faced five ranked opponents in their first eight games, if the win they SEC west there is a good chance they will play 10 ranked teams this season.  That's a mind-boggling number in modern college football.  Just looking at the final scores this season, only Oregon and Mississippi St have been within 20 after the final whistle.  Only four teams have scored double digits this year, two of those team (Florida and Auburn) tallied 11 and 10 respectfully.

On the field, like their opponents, it is about speed and defense.  Sophomore defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, known as the Honey Badger, anchors this defense.  Arguably the best player in the game (about 10 guys realistically can lay claim to that title) Tyrann has been all over the field this season.  In seven games (suspended for the last tilt) he has forced four fumbles, recovering three, to go along with two picks and two touchdowns.  In week one against Oregon, Mathieu came up big, racking up 10 total tackles.  But the big play was early in the second quarter, playing on the punt team, the Honey Badger stripped the returner, picked the ball up and scored to help LSU beat the then third ranked team in the nation.

One of the reasons this LSU team is so good, is the speed on the edges.  Oregon and Florida struggled to get to the corners against the Tigers and that was a big part of their undoing.  The defense has held their opponents to 2.5 yards per carry.  Defensive end Barkevious Mingo is part of the reason why.  In eight games Mingo has a team leading 7.5 tackles for loss and his four sacks are tied for the most on the team with fellow D-lineman Sam Montgomery.

On the offensive side of the ball LSU will not blow the doors off of teams, but they don't make mistake either.  So far this season Jarrett Lee threw an interception against Miss St, the team fumbled against Oregon and Takhari Gore coughed up the ball against Northwestern St.  That's it.

This season, Jarrett Lee has been the starter after Jordan Jefferson got suspended for fighting in a bar (I know, I can't believe it either).  Lee epitomizes a game control quarterback.  Not needed to make big plays to win, Lee has continually made the right decisions, completing over 63 percent of his passes and 13 scores.  Jefferson has now assumed the role of a change of pace QB.  He is averaging over four yards a rush on 26 carries and can throw the ball with two scores in ten attempts.  They are enough of a duel threat, that defenses have to game plan for both players, not an easy task, but the Crimson Tide have the players to do so.

LSU does hold the special teams edge in this game.  Punter Brad Wing averages 44.5 yards per punt and their kick coverage is magnificent.  The kick coverage makes tackles to limit return yards and create turnovers.

LSU's head coach, Les Miles, is the Charlie Day of college football.  I could totally see Miles turning to his coaching staff after running a triple reverse fake punt and screaming "Wild Card".  Les loves to throw in trick plays in games like this, watch for them, they can swing a game in both directions.

 Alabama

Alabama has not played as tough of a schedule so far as LSU, but it certainly wasn't an easy one.  Arkansas and their high-powered offense are tops when it comes to scoring against the tide, with 14, yes fourteen.  Arkansas and Penn St are both one-loss teams, they would be undefeated if Alabama hadn't been on their schedule, combined they have scored 25 points against the Tide.  That would not have beaten them in any game this year.  

Just like their counterparts from Baton Rouge, the Tide's success comes from their defense.  Bama has given up 55 total points over 8 games, that's 6.9 points per game.  Moving the ball against Alabama is not easy, it may be impossible to do it on the ground.  Opponents have averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry.  It doesn't stop with the run defense, Alabama is only giving up 180.5 total yards per game.

Since 2008, Nick Saban's team has only lost 4 SEC games (South Carolina, Auburn, LSU last year and Florida in '08).  In those games Florida's 22 pass attempts is the high water mark, the other three threw just 20 times.  That shows in recent years, the way to beat the Tide is to run the ball a lot and only throw when needed.  In those games all four teams rushed for over 100 yards (including a robust 225 by LSU last year).  The problem for LSU this year is 2011 Alabama defense is better than last year and loaded with future NFL players.  

Dont'A Hightower and Courtney Upshaw lead a defense that may send all 11 starters to the NFL.  Hightower tops the defensive unit with 48 tackles from the linebacker position.  The senior Upshaw has brought down opposing players an astounding 11.5 times behind the line of scrimmage, along with a team high 4.5 sacks.  


Veteran senior free safety Mark Barron headlines the Alabama secondary, that CBS commentor Gary Danielson says will have 5 DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds.  Along with Hightower, a semi-finalist for the Lott Trophy, given to the nation's top defensive player.  Barron is second on the team in tackles with 38 and 3.5 for losses, along with one INT.


The offense plays second fiddle to the their defense, but has put up a lot of points this year.  The offense starts and revolves around their Heisman candidate running back Trent Richardson.  Trent is 11 yards from breaking the 1,000 yard plateau for the season.  He scored 17 touchdowns on the ground and one through the air.  The best thing for Richardson and Alabama is that he does not have to rely on getting to the corners to be successful.  LSU will close off the corners and make runners go straight at their defense between the tackles.  This is Richardson's specialty, if the Tide end up winning this game, his ability to run north-south and finding the holes when they appear will be the main reason.


At the quarterback position the Tide will send out a pure game-manager in A.J. McCarron.  Like his counter-part in Jarrett Lee, McCarron is on the field to help guide the team and not make mistakes.  So far this season he has only thrown three interceptions (backup Phillip Sims has thrown two).  The LSU defense is exceptional at creating turnovers, McCarron will have to make sure he holds on to the football and continues to throw smart passes.  An ill timed turnover would play a huge role in this game, especially with LSU's extraordinary ball security skills.


Nick Saban has two national titles (one at Bama and one at LSU), with Urban Meyer coaching the ESPN flag football team, Saban is firmly planted on top of the coaching mountain right now and there for has the coaching edge on Saturday.  With that said a win for the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, would take a giant step toward that peak. 




The Picks


I went 2-3 last week, thanks to Georgia and Oklahoma doing their job


(1) LSU (+4.5) at (2) Alabama

I think Alabama should be favored in this game, but 4.5 in a game with two great defenses is too high.  I expect this score to be low and I can see a field goal winning this game.

(7) Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. Texas A&M


Oklahoma destroyed K-State last week, they are still pissed off about the lose to Tech, Landry Jones threw 5 scores against a decent defense.  A&M does not have a decent defense.  Oklahoma wins by at least two scores.

(10) South Carolina (+5) at (8) Arkansas

Arkansas is a very good team and could give LSU a test at the end of the year.  South Carolina lost their best player two weeks ago for the season.  But the old ball coach has a defense, they can rush the passer and keeps games close.  Arkansas will probably win, but I think it will be by a late score, not a blow out.

(4) Stanford (+21) at Oregon St

Stanford gets the lesser of the Oregon schools this week, before getting the big boys next week.  The beavers sucks, Stanford had their scare last week, I think Andrew Luck picks this defense apart and they win by 30.

Idaho (+8.5) at San Jose St

Idaho is 1-7 and San Jose St is 3-5.  Not much more than pride to play for in this WAC battle.  Idaho has a player name Njoku, just Njoku.  He has one tackle this year, I see a breakout game for Mr. Njoku and a win for the Vandals.  




Every time I typed "wins" in this post, I typed "wings" instead, now I want chicken wings.