Okay. Let's get to Week 11 in this strange world we call college football. It is a decent week for college football, no games of the century, but the national title picture could very well be shaken up on Saturday.
In the early games the big TV game for both on-the-field and off-the-field reasons in Nebraska at Penn St. Instead of going into that game which has become impossible to analysis on a strictly football level, I'm going to go with the Oklahoma St. v. Texas Tech game. The game at State College has the soap opera factor, but the game in Lubbock, TX has the national title contender factor.
This game has more to do with seeing Oklahoma St. play, than it is about an intriguing game. This is the time of the year when we need to starting thinking about which teams are good enough to play for the BCS title in January. We know LSU is good enough and will most likely be there, the jury is still out on the Cowboys. The Oklahoma St. offense is the Albert Pujols of college football offenses, it's a machine. There are players on this team that you just need to see, if it's just because you love college football or you want to see who will be in the NFL draft in April. It starts with quarterback Brandon Weeden, from a numbers point he has completed 72 percent of his passes for 3212 yards for 26 scores. But it is about consistency with Weeden, only once this season he has thrown less than 2 TDs and broken the 300 yard barrier five times. A big part of Weeden and OK-State's success has been the receiving crew. Justin Blackmon, Josh Cooper and Tracy Moore are all NFL caliber wide-outs. Blackmon is the best receiver in the NCAA and will be the top receiver taken in April. Cut from the same mold as former Oklahoma St. Cowboy Dez Bryant, Blackmon is tied for tops in the nation in touchdown catches, third in receptions and seventh in yards. More than just numbers, Blackmon is fun to watch, when ever he touches the ball he can break it. He is on the same level as Bryant when it comes to size and skill, and since you probably don't hate Oklahoma St. this is a good time and game to take a look at this wide receiver before he starts playing on Sundays and your routing interest may come into effect. Also take a look at their running back Joseph Randle, this blogger thinks he can succeed on the next level.
The afternoon games don't give us much, Rutgers plays Army at Yankee Stadium, I'm a stadium nerd and I love these types of games. Whether it is the Winter Classic or a bowl game at Yankee Stadium or Cal playing in AT&T Park, I love it. I love when sports are played at non-traditional venues. If you have a few minutes Saturday and can find this game on TV, you should take a look, it's a pretty cool thing to see.
But that game is going to suck, I went to the State University of New Jersey and that game is going to suck. The best football game in the afternoon slot is Auburn going between the hedges in Athens to take on Georgia. Both teams are ranked, the Bulldogs are in the drivers seat for the SEC East crown and a win Saturday will all but clinch it with Kentucky being the lone conference game left on the schedule for Georgia. When Saturdays role around and two traditional SEC powers are playing each other, it is usually a safe bet it will be a compelling game to watch. Quarterback Aaron Murray has righted the ship from the back-to-back losses to start the season and won seven straight. He is a good QB that doesn't make too many mistakes even with a lack-luster receiving core. The player to watch in this game is running back Isaiah Crowell, who will start after sitting out a one-game suspension for violating "team rules". Crowell is explosive with the ball. He's one of those backs that either gets stopped for no gain or breaks it for 20, I love watching players like that.
Auburn on the other side is a team that can not play with the top powers in the country, but they play everyone else well. They have been beat pretty easily by LSU, Arkansas and Clemson, but they do have a nice victory over South Carolina when they still had Marcus Lattimore and Florida. Auburn succeeds with it's running game. Michael Dyer is the main back, a sophomore who was overshadowed by Cam Newton last season, and Onterio McCalebb, a third down back that can catch ball out of the backfield. Dyer is 11 yards away from 1000 for the season, it will be his season consecutive season with 1000-plus yards. In Auburn's biggest win against South Carolina, Dyer was a work-horse, carrying the ball 41 times for 141 and a score. More importantly in that game Dyer made big first downs and help Auburn run 40 plays more than South Carolina.
In the night games, it is all about Stanford and Oregon. This is the defacto Pac-12 title game. Oregon has one loss this year and it is to top ranked LSU. Stanford has not lost this season and has future number-one overall pick Andrew Luck leading the team. Both of these teams still have a chance to play for the BCS championship (Stanford has a better shot, but both team can make it) and are exciting to watch.
We'll start with the visitors from Oregon. The Ducks made too many mistakes and lost in week one against LSU, but there have bounced back and won every match-up since. They have overcome some injuries to their best players, including all-everything back LaMichael James and starting QB Darron Thomas. Oregon runs the ball using misdirection and their speed and ability to get to the corners. Some say it is a system running game, and in some aspects that is correct, but there is a lot of talent there also. It starts with James, he's played seven games this season, missing two to injury, he's carried the ball for 200-plus yards three times this season, including 288 yards against Arizona. Stanford is pretty good against the run, but 200 yards is 200 yards and James will get his this weekend. Oregon has a very good stable of backs and a QB that can run the option well. Darron Thomas does not run for as many yards as most option QB do, mainly because his running backs are that talented. Thomas does use the threat of the option to benefit his passing attack, defenses need to respect the run and they tend to load up the box in order to contain James and the other running backs, Thomas is very adapt at waiting for the defense to commit and then take a shot down field or use their speedy receivers on screens and slants.
Stanford is undefeated and trying to make a serious claims at a spot in the title game. The cardinal have played a pretty weak schedule, this has a lot to do with a mediocre Pac-12 (specifically the north division) and a bad out of conference schedule. With that all said Stanford has beaten everyone on the schedule and except for USC beaten then convincingly. Luck has played brilliantly this season, picking apart every team on the schedule and making big throws against USC (front runner for game of the year this season). Stanford's offense is more balanced than the Andrew Luck's hype has you believe. They have a good offensive line that does not let Luck get hit and helps the running game average over 224 yards per contest. That number is a little inflated by the weak schedule and 446 yard rushing performance against Washington. With that all said, this team succeeds and would fail with Andrew Luck. Quick stat line: 71.3-2424-26-5. That's really good, multiple TDs in all games, four 300 yard passing games. Luck makes smart decisions, makes great throws and knows this offense exceptionally well. We have all heard how good he is, if you didn't see the USC game, this is going to be a great opportunity to see him against a good opponent.
Since Stanford and Oregon are playing at 8, there is no reason to watch any of the late games. I advise you to get some sleep or get a drink, I plan on the latter.
The Picks
Went 4-1 last week, I blame myself for the South Carolina pick, 6-4 on the season since the start of this blog.
(6) Oregon (+3.5) at (3) Stanford
Stanford has one of the worst home field advantages in the nation. They rarely sellout, this one will, but it is not a tough place to play. Oregon has been some what overlooked since the week 1 loss and being on the west coast. I think the offenses can and will keep it close through out the game and a last score wins it, I'm leaning toward Oregon getting that last score.
(24) Auburn (+13) at (14) Georgia
This line really jumped out at me. Georgia is the better and should win at home, but Auburn is pretty good in its own right and Georgia only bet Florida by 4. Georgia wins, but definitely not by 13, give me the points.
(22) Michigan (-1) at Illinois
Illinois has lost 3 straight in the Big Ten and is not a good football team. Michigan is 7-2 and coming of a loss to Iowa and looking to stay ranked and keep it's slight chances at making the Big Ten title game. Denard Robinson is going to be the best offensive player on the field. I think Michigan is better and wins, at worst I push in that scenario.
(13) Michigan St. (-2.5) at Iowa
I was tempted to take Ok-State giving 17 here, but I like Michigan St. against Iowa. Iowa had a nice win last week, but they are having a down year and Michigan St. can take a big step to locking up their division on Saturday with a win and 2.5 seems kinda small.
Middle Tennessee St. (+6) at Louisiana-Monroe
I'm going to continue my road team trend for the week with this Sun Belt showdown. Both teams have 2 wins on the season and one in the conference. ULM's conference win is against Troy and MT's is against a some how worse Florida Atlantic. ULM only lost by one to UL-Lafayette and MT got crushed. All signs point to UL-Monroe as being better than Mid-Tennessee. And that is why I'm going with Middle Tennessee St. That is top notch handicapping and analysis right there, I truly have a gift.
Have a good Thursday, Va. Tech plays Georgia Tech in a top 20 ACC battle tonight, it's a good game to watch if you don't get the NFL Network for Raiders-Chargers game. Take the Chargers giving the points more on that at here.
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